Yes, Turbulence Is Getting Worse—Here’s What You Should Know

There are a few unpleasant, unavoidable things frequent fliers grow accustomed to—travel delays, long security lines, expensive airport snacks, and the occasional bout of turbulence, among them. The latter can be particularly alarming, especially for those travelers who don’t understand exactly what turbulence is and why it happens. 

To answer all your questions (and reassure you the next time your flight feels a bit bumpy), we spoke with Bill Duncan, the associate director of meteorology at The Weather Company. Below, he fills us in on all things turbulence, including what causes it, how to stay safe while flying, and why it seems like turbulence has been getting worse over the last couple of years. 

What causes turbulence?

This question is multi-pronged; there’s no one thing behind the rough air your plane may encounter. 

“Essentially, turbulence is unstable movement in the atmosphere. It’s typically caused by upper-level fronts and wind shears (like those near the jet stream), thunderstorms and clouds, or air flowing over mountains,” explains Duncan. “When air currents encounter geographical features, they form waves that can break and create a cascade of wind eddies, leading to turbulence.” So don’t be alarmed if your plane experiences a bit of turbulence on a day when there’s no thunderstorm in the forecast. 

Do some routes have worse turbulence? 

You can experience turbulence anywhere—from ground level to all the way above cruising altitude—but yes, according to Duncan, the frequency of turbulence can vary based on the location. Before diving further into his answer, though, there are three definitions you need to keep in mind.

• Clear air turbulence (CAT): According to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), CAT is “sudden severe turbulence occurring in cloudless regions that causes violent buffeting of aircraft.” It excludes any turbulence caused by “thunderstorms, low-altitude temperature inversions, thermals, strong surface winds, or local terrain features.”
• Convectively induced turbulence (CIT): CIT is also referred to as “thermal turbulence,” and the American Meteorological Society defines it as “turbulence occurring in convective storms, particularly thunderstorms, that is felt by aircraft.” It’s “caused by strong updrafts and downdrafts.”
• Mountain wave turbulence: The National Weather Service defines mountain wave turbulence as the type of turbulence caused by “turbulent eddies that are found downwind from mountain ridges.”

“Clear air turbulence is often linked to jet stream winds, and pilots have several options to navigate around them, such as adjusting altitude or heading. The area just north of a jet stream can also be tricky due to potential horizontal wind shear, and turbulence can arise when a jet stream splits or merges with another jet stream,” says Duncan. “Fortunately, pilots have resources to help mitigate these risks. Meteorologists analyze flight-planning guidance charts, and pilots, dispatchers, and meteorologists can adjust routes based on updated weather forecasts and real-time data.”

If you’re flying across the country in the winter—or over the Rocky Mountains—don’t be surprised if the ride is rougher than expected. “Clear air turbulence is more common in the continental United States during winter because that’s when the jet stream shifts southward,” he says. Convectively induced turbulence, on the other hand, is “more likely in areas with thunderstorms,” and mountain-wave turbulence is “most common over and downwind of mountainous regions.”

Why Turbulence Is Nothing to Worry About

The general feeling of the airplane shaking mid-flight might be uncomfortable or annoying, but there’s absolutely no reason for passengers to panic. Modern, well-maintained planes are built to withstand a variety of seemingly dangerous conditions, from wind and lightning to extreme cold and turbulence.

Plus, the flight team generally has a heads-up on the conditions they’re about to fly into. “Pilots receive timely updates, helping to reduce the element of being surprised by unforecasted turbulence,” says Duncan. “Our ability to forecast the location, timing, and severity of turbulence has also advanced. Airlines and pilots can now use these predictions to choose smoother routes or prepare passengers and crew for potentially turbulent conditions.” 

How to Stay Safe During Turbulence

The best way to stay safe during turbulence is to listen to the flight crew’s instructions, so keep your headphones on low volume to ensure you don’t miss any announcements. “Pilots receive advance reports about turbulence along their routes. Additionally, dispatchers stay in contact with local meteorologists who actively monitor routes and issue Flight Planning Guidance Charts (FPGs) and Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMETs). SIGMETs provide dispatchers with critical data to relay to pilots regarding hazardous weather affecting the aircraft,” says Duncan. 

And if you’re planning on sleeping during the flight? Your best bet is to have your seatbelt fastened at all times (even when the light above your seat isn’t technically on). “As someone who flies frequently, I’ve noticed many passengers disregard the seatbelt sign. Turbulence can indeed be unpredictable, with sudden shifts of varying intensity. It’s difficult to know the type of shear an aircraft might experience,” he warns. 

Is turbulence getting worse?

Short answer: Yes, turbulence is getting worse. “Extreme weather events, in general, have increased in severity since 2000, and there is no doubt that warming trends impact the jet stream,” says Duncan. A 2023 study from researchers at the University of Reading also found that clear air turbulence, specifically, has increased and become 55 percent more frequent in 2020 than in 1979. The same study shared that the findings were “consistent with the expected effects of climate change,” and the largest increases are over the U.S. and the North Atlantic. 

That said, turbulence reporting has also significantly improved. “These advancements are due to better weather prediction models—such as The Weather Company’s GRAF model, which, combined with AI, predicts turbulence and other aviation hazards,” he says. “Machine learning algorithms analyze historical weather data and turbulence observations, enhancing their accuracy as more data is gathered. These algorithms use the latest weather forecast model data to identify areas of potential turbulence.” 

So while the instances of turbulence may be rising, Duncan shares that dispatchers and pilots continue to “collaborate closely with aviation meteorologists to select routes with the least potential for turbulence.” Again, there’s no cause for passengers to worry—but if you’re the type of traveler who still gets nervous when the plane starts to shake, you can always take a look at a Turbulence Forecast before departure.