Melissa forecast to become major hurricane this weekend, threatening Jamaica. Maps show its path.

Melissa is expected to strengthen from a tropical storm into a major hurricane this weekend, and it could bring “life-threatening and catastrophic” flash flooding and landslides to Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic early next week, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center warns.

Melissa, the 13th named storm of the Atlantic season, isn’t expected to have major impacts on the mainland United States.

Melissa’s forecast and path

On Saturday morning, Melissa’s core was about 160 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 235 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, the hurricane center said. Maximum sustained winds were 70 mph, with tropical storm-force winds extending some 115 miles from the storm’s center. It was inching north at just 1 mph.

It was forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane — meaning a Category 3 or higher — by Sunday. 

“It’s going to intensify very rapidly,” CBS News weather anchor Lonnie Quinn said Friday evening.

Jamaica, Haiti and eastern Cuba should brace for “catastrophic rainfall, up to nearly 3 feet of rain,” Quinn said. “Mountainous terrain — there’s going to be mudslides. I am fearful for what we will find by the time we get into next week for this portion of the Caribbean.”

On top of that, he warned, the storm could be packing 140 mile per hour winds.

“Jamaica, I think, is going to take the worst of it,” Quinn said.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning were in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince.

Although Melissa was moving north Friday, the hurricane center said it was forecast to take a turn to the west on Saturday and continue that westward movement through Monday.

“On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica early next week and could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week,” the hurricane center said. 

Rainfall forecasts

Melissa is expected to drop up to 25 inches of rain on parts of southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic and Jamaica through Tuesday, with higher amounts possible in some areas, the hurricane center said. Southeast Cuba could see up to 12 inches of rain. 

“Potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in southern Haiti,” forecasters said. 

Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday, the hurricane center said, but uncertainty remains about the more extended forecast.