The Minnesota Timberwolves poured in 271 points against the best defense in the NBA over the recent holiday weekend at Target Center and it still left them on the brink of elimination in the Western Conference Finals.
If you’re primarily an advocate of high-caliber, high-intensity hoops, the Timberwolves and the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder provided you with a delightfully uneven medley of tromped-throttle thrills and kamikaze spills spread over 96 minutes on Saturday and Monday nights. But if you are primarily a Wolves fan, the 143-101 thrashing they administered on Saturday parlayed with the 128-126 nail-biter that waylaid them on Monday turned the word “bittersweet” inside-out, so you could better see and finger the bruise from the steadily pummeled emotions.
The best-of-seven series now stands at 3-1, meaning the Wolves 2024-25 NBA season can’t withstand another defeat unless an improbable trio of victories pinwheels them past the perched guillotine into a clean slate in the championship round. Their first foray into that potentially fatal obstacle course is Wednesday night in Oklahoma City.
The series could have been tied with a Timberwolves triumph in Game 4 on Monday, and that scenario danced like a mirage before them for most of the contest. Three times in the first quarter a bucket gave them a brief lead, but their total time in charge was a mere 51 seconds. The rest of it was a scrabble without purchase, yet with their goal hovering an arm’s length away so long as they kept churning.
With the stakes and the striving elevated to an extraordinary level, pat explanations for what transpired become more tempting and less definitive.
For example, Timberwolves Coach Chris Finch and the players correctly noted that the Wolves gave up 19 offensive rebounds and turned the ball over 21 times, ugly frequencies that typically make defeat a certainty. But was the actual cost from those categories prohibitive to success?
Almost by definition, the direct benefit of offensive rebounds is generating second-chance points. And yes, the Thunder had 24 second-chance points, converting nine of 17 opportunities. But the Timberwolves also finished the game with 19 offensive rebounds, and leveraged them for 30 second-chance points, converting eight of 15 opportunities (more three-pointers or free throws likely accounts for their better efficiency).
Then there are points scored off an opponent’s turnovers. The Wolves turned the ball over 23 times and it cost them 22 points. But here again, although the Thunder only turned it over 14 times, the Wolves turned those miscues into 25 points.
Add up the second-chance points and the points scored off turnovers, and the Wolves are plus nine, 55 to 46.
Another easy narrative is that the Thunder’s top two scorers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, showed up, and the Wolves most prolific pair, Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, didn’t. The numbers are persuasive. Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander combined for 74 points, while the Ant-Randle combo mustered just 21 points.
Related: Yes, things are as bad as they look for the Timberwolves
But for years now, the steady theme relative to the maturation of Ant has been his ability to “get off the ball” and enable his teammates when opposing defenses are stacked up to stop him. An ongoing complaint, which extended well into this season, has been his tendency to try and do it all himself when adversity strikes, rather than trusting his open teammates to further the offense.
On Monday, Ant consistently exhibited that trust, “taking what the defense gave him” by moving the ball after probing seemed fruitless. And at least partially as a result of this, his teammates flourished. Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NAW) both shot 9-15 and combined to make 8-14 three-pointers. NAW led the team in scoring his 23 points and McDaniels was right behind him with 22. Donte DiVincenzo was right behind that at 21 points, borne of 7-11 shooting including 5-8 from long distance.
As a team, the Timberwolves shot 51.2% (43-84) from the field and 43.9% (18-41) from three-point territory – excellent efficiency en route to 126 points, and better than the Thunder’s still-impressive 50.5% (48-95) from the field and 43.2% (16-37) from deep. It is fair to say that doesn’t happen if Ant takes it upon himself to “prove” his stardom and force up more difficult shots. (To his credit, and ongoing maturity, he defended the way he played on offense after the game.)
Last but certainly not least, when a team loses, a popular narrative is to blame it on the refs. This is especially tempting when the opponent is OKC, and specifically Gilgeous-Alexander, who is incredibly adroit at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line. He did attempt 14 free throws, making 12.
But a half-dozen of those occurred in the last 15 seconds, when the Wolves were forced to foul to hasten their possession of the ball and try to overcome a small deficit. For the game, the Wolves were whistled for 20 personal fouls, leading to 21 Thunder free throws. Meanwhile, OKC was cited for 22 fouls, and the Wolves went to the line 28 times.
Bottom line, there is no glaring “gotcha” that explains this heartbreaking loss. But there are a series of factors, which, added together, can help us surmise why the Thunder happened to be two points better on Monday. And many of them are related to the topics just addressed.
The point is, we don’t have to make mountains out of molehills when the difference between victory and defeat is molehill-sized.
First off, many of you may have noticed from the shooting stats above that the Thunder took 11 more shots than the Timberwolves, and at a time when they enjoyed a brief double-digit lead earlier in the second half, the disparity in field-goal attempts was closer to 20. This is in part because of the offensive rebounds and the turnovers. Sure, they shot less accurately, had two fewer made treys and six fewer free throws converted, but five more field-goal makes overall.
In tandem with this, it must be said that the Thunder offense was able to execute its gameplan against the Wolves defense better than the Wolves offense fared against the Thunder defense.
Ant was right to get off the ball but, even stymied somewhat, Gilgeous-Alexander got more of what he wanted, and what OKC needed. The reigning NBA MVP made only 13 of 30 shots, a huge number, but with the free-throws added it amounted to 40 points – and, most significantly, was accompanied by 10 assists versus five turnovers. By contrast, even “getting off the ball,” Ant could only generate six assists versus five turnovers – and at 5-13, was slightly more inaccurate from the field.
When you add the “second tier” of Randle and Jalen Williams, the disparity widens considerably. Randle alone is hardly responsible for this loss, but making only one shot in seven attempts, going scoreless in the second half and committing five turnovers compared to just three assists was an obstacle. And it is thrown into stark relief when you consider Williams racked up 34 points (Randle had five) with five assists and two turnovers.
The point differential is bad enough – as written earlier, 74-21. But the argument that the Wolves top scorers (but mostly Ant) compensated by facilitating for others, works in a vacuum but not in comparison to OKC. Ant was adept in furthering the offensive flow, but Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams got their own and also posted 15 assists compared to just seven turnovers. They didn’t need the “others” to step up in a big way because they personally accounted for 68% of the assists as well as 58% of the points.
While Randle’s anemic showing is a factor here, so is the performance of the Wolves defense. Sure, OKC’s point total was elevated by offensive rebounds and turnovers, but we’ve already demonstrated that the Wolves outscored them in those areas. The Thunder’s offensive trump card was better efficiency and firepower in the classic half-court sets. Take away the turnovers, offensive boards, and free throws, and the Wolves inability to stop the Thunder from getting buckets relative the reverse matchup at the other end of the court, becomes more blatant.
OK, enough dissection. We’ve now done the autopsy of a heartbreaker, and fans will cope with their broken hearts according to personality type.
Let’s instead focus for a minute on the glory of the hoops being played at Target Center in late May on Saturday and Monday night.
In Game 3, the Timberwolves dismantled OKC from the jump. After three-and-a-half minutes of feeling each other out, they blitzed forth with a 17-2 run, six minutes of opportunistic hustle, rugged physicality, smart decisions and deadeye shooting that featured memorable moments such as a pair of half-court steals by Rudy Gobert, a reverberating collision between Ant and the slab of tungsten named Lu Dort from which Ant emerged with the ball and an open path to a layup. Ant led the way with 16 points and five rebounds in a first quarter that ended 34-14.
And when Ant subbed out, his replacement was TJ Shannon, the every-ready 24-year-old rookie who proceeded to mold his own piece of local hoops folklore by sustaining Ant’s aggression and prolific scoring, a character actor issuing a spellbinding soliloquy that becomes a highlight of the play.
By halftime it is 72-41. When OKC tries to replicate its monumental comeback from 26 points down to Memphis in the opening of the postseason by going on an 11-2 run to start the third period, the Wolves quash it right quick. McDaniels cans a three-pointer off a feed from Ant. Then Ant drives for a reverse layup that goes in, follows it up with a missed layup in the next possession only to see Gobert pound it home for a putback dunk. Ant’s pullup trey a possession pumps the lead to 32 points. Oklahoma City empties its bench before the third quarter is over and the Timberwolves coast to a 143-101 masterpiece.
Then comes Monday, a downer for the Wolves playoff chances but an intriguing thriller throughout – the most competitive game of the series thus far. A pair of great (OKC) or very good (Minnesota) defenses can’t stop the opponent from scoring, despite the fact that both of them are flying around to shooters so assiduously that forcing missed shots overrides the priority of rebounding position.
The Thunder was determined to atone for their Game 3 embarrassment. The Timberwolves were determined to even the series and make it a best two-out-of-three path to four wins and a trip to the NBA Finals and championship hoops.
The path is much tougher today, as the Timberwolves prepare for Game 4. Consensus would say that the top seeded Thunder – who won 68 regular season games and are on their home court in a loud arena where they are the only major pro sports franchise in the city – will close it out.
Maybe. But this Wolves franchise – its roster, coaching staff, front office and new majority ownership – has again invaded what personnel guru President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly calls “the final four,” gathering lessons and bruises that will prick their pride and deepen this fresh culture of success.
It’s OK to be hungry for a championship. But the “or bust,” part of that all-or-nothing philosophy casts aside the sheer pleasure of competition at the highest levels. Win or lose, I’d rather embrace it, whether it ends Wednesday after one more game or on June 22, 10 games hence, with a trophy on the line.
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