The price tag of the New Jersey gubernatorial race – now neck and neck and grabbing attention of the national parties – has topped $72 million and is on pace to shatter the Garden State’s spending record with a month still left, a Post analysis found.
Republican Jack Ciattarelli is gaining steam both financially and with voters, while panicked Democrats are funneling tens of millions of dollars through super PACs and other independent expenditures to pump up embattled Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s campaign — in a desperate bid to prevent the traditionally blue state where Dems outnumber Republicans by nearly 1 million registered voters from flipping red.
The race’s full tab could exceed $250 million by Election Day on Nov. 4 when factoring in a state-record $145 million spent during this year’s gubernatorial primaries by Sherrill, Ciattarelli and other candidates vying for the wide-open seat currently held by term-limited Democrat Phil Murphy, pundits say.
Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman representing part of Hunterdon County in central Jersey, announced last week his campaign raised $6.4 million for the general election – becoming the race’s first candidate to qualify for the maximum $12.5 million in public matching funds.
More than $1 million came in after Ciattarelli scored positive reviews during a Sept. 21 debate with Sherrill. His campaign found more traction following bombshell revelations that Sherrill was barred from the U.S. Naval Academy’s 1994 commencement because she was enmeshed in a cheating scandal.
“Jack beating Mikie to the match . . . is a big deal because that’s not something a challenging Republican is able to do in this state,” said longtime New Jersey GOP strategist Alex Wilkes. “I mean, she’s a sitting congresswoman!”
“I think people are rightly starting to see us more as a purple state,” she added. “I mean, look at the last presidential election: President Trump lost the state by only six points, despite spending no money here.”
Days after Ciattarelli beat her to the match, Sherrill announced securing $7.35 million in campaign donations, putting her more than a $1 million above the qualifying threshold.
Both candidates have agreed to an $18.5 million campaign-spending cap to accept public matching funds, but additional money raised can go toward paying legal fees and other non-get-of-the-vote expenses.
Sherrill, however, has a big edge in outside help.
The Democratic Governors Association, through a super PAC called Greater Garden State, has committed spending more than $20 million on television, digital and streaming ads for her.
The Democratic National Committee is pouring in another $3 million.
Two super PACs supporting Ciattarelli’s candidacy are providing a combined $11 million for the general election: $7.3 through Republican Governors Association-backed Restore New Jersey and another $3.7 from Change NJ, reps for both PACs said.
In all, at least $72.3 million is already committed to be spent in the general election through campaign funds and outside money — including at least $42.4 million for Sherrill and $29.9 million for Ciattarelli.
That sum already far exceeds the $60.5 million spent on the 2021 general election, in which Murphy narrowly beat Ciattarelli. With primaries, the total was nearly $90.7 million, according to the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.
While Ciattarelli’s outside support is dwarfed by Sherrill’s, it already more than double the $4.6 million he received from PACs in 2021.
“We have a real opportunity to win,” said Carlos Cruz, a Change NJ spokesman.
Sherrill’s campaign did not return messages.
Kate Gibbs, executive director of the New Jersey Republican State Committee, said there’s a “huge opportunity” to flip the state red, adding “it would be an incredible sign of momentum” for the National Republican Party heading into next year’s midterm elections.
“Republicans in New Jersey are always outspent in almost every race we run . . . but we can compete, and we clearly are competing because this race is neck and neck. We don’t need equal footing to win.”
When asked if the RNC should be pitching in big bucks considering the cash-strapped DNC is assisting Sherrill, Gibbs insisted the RNC has been “incredibly supportive” by providing poll watchers.
“I think the RNC is considering it and is likely going to come in to support . . . I think Jack is doing everything he needs to do to make sure we are sending signals to potential investors that yes, we can win, and we are doing everything we need to do to win.”
The RNC did not return messages.
Although the 2021 governor’s race – until this year – saw the most spending in state history, the 2005 election where Democrat Jon Corzine beat Doug Forrester wasn’t far behind. In that race, $88.1 million was spent during primaries and the general election – a tab that jumps to $125 million when adjusted for inflation, according to a NJ ELEC analysis published in 2021.
Corzine, like Murphy, was a millionaire Goldman Sachs exec before being elected governor.
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