The upcoming flyweight contest between Matt Schnell and TUF 33 winner Joseph Morales, scheduled for November 8, 2025, at the UFC Apex, has drawn significant attention among bettors and analysts. The betting markets and data assessments collectively favor Joseph Morales to win, most likely by submission.
UFC Vegas 111 Betting Preview: Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales
Current odds across major sportsbooks favor Joseph Morales. At the time of writing, Morales is listed as a -325 favorite, while Schnell sits as a +260 underdog. These odds translate to an approximate win probability of 73% for Morales and 27% for Schnell. Play more numbers at https://aviamasters.game/.
The market has remained relatively stable in the lead-up to the fight, with no major changes recorded in the final week. Earlier lines had Morales in the -270 to -286 range, while Schnell ranged from +225 to +260, indicating Morales has consistently been the betting favorite throughout the build-up. There have been no abrupt shifts in this particular fight’s line.
The best odds for round-based bets show that under 1.5 rounds carries a +135 price, suggesting bookmakers anticipate a potential early finish, but have not overwhelmingly committed to that scenario. Decision prop odds price Morales at +225 to win on the judgers’ scorecards, with Schnell holding longer odds at +750 for victory by decision.
Morales’ strongest victory route remains via submission, priced at +175, with roughly a 73% probability assigned by sportsbooks. The small cage, Schnell’s suspect takedown defense, and Morales’ recent finishing form make this the most plausible outcome, especially in the first two rounds.
Should the UFC veteran Schnell defend early submission attempts and minimize ground control time, Morales can secure rounds through positional dominance and ground strikes, with a decision priced at +225. Schnell’s best opportunity is a striking-based knockout, with lines set at +1200. The volume differential gives Schnell some urgency to press for damage, but Morales’ defensive skills make this outcome unlikely.
Joseph Morales is riding UFC on an impressive win streak, most recently submitting Alibi Idiris with a triangle choke. Mixed in are professional victories, TUF wins, and grappling matches. Morales is younger, fresher, and carries a 13-2 professional record. His game centers around grappling superiority, with 2.63 submission attempts per 15 minutes and a 54% submission finish rate. Morales converts takedowns at 50% accuracy and demonstrates high efficiency once on the mat.
Morales is recommended as a solid favorite for both straight and method-of-victory bets, particularly in submission prop and early round finish markets. Should Schnell succeed, it would likely be via attritional striking and robust defensive adjustments in deep rounds, a less probable but not impossible path.
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